Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Posted on Tuesday, October 28, 2008 at 05:27PM by Bill Webb 1 Comment The latest data from the Case-Shiller report on home prices shows that while home prices in the 20 largest markets continues to decline, the Dallas market has shown a slow down in the rate of decline and is in fact up for the year to date. The Dallas market continues to be one of the most stable markets in the country. The Dallas market enjoys a 2.3% job growth rate which is well above last year's U.S growth rate of 1.5% . The Dallas area leads the nation along with other Texas cities. The job growth rate would appear to be strong for the remainder of 2008 and into 2009. Dallas new home starts are down 34.8%. This represents a concerted effort by builders to keep inventories at low levels when compared to years past. This will continue to support the re-sale market in the area. When looking at existing home sales it is important to break the Dallas metroplex into it's smaller community parts. When we do this we see that there can be a wide swing in home sales from north to south or east to west. That is why this blog continues to focus on the communities to the north of Dallas in particular. The DFW foreclosure rate is also low at 1.4%. Again, you must look at particular communities in order to get a true picture of how the foreclosure rate is affecting the area. The pink elephant that is in the room with us is the U.S economy. Many consumers are frozen because of the media's portrait of an economy where credit is unattainable. This is not the case at all. Frankly, it is no harder to obtain a mortgage today than it was two months ago. If you are a borrower with good credit, a job, and have some money for a down payment then you can obtain a mortgage at historically low interest rates. With home prices on the lower end when compared to recent years, it is an excellent time to make a purchase or to move up into a larger home. If you have specific questions about your personal situation please contact me. I will be more than happy to help with the decision making process.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Posted on Wednesday, September 10, 2008 at 01:52PM by Bill Webb Post a Comment The latest statistics show that the local real estate market in the North Dallas Suburbs may be starting to turn. The shift in the local market has been swift in comparison to other markets and certainly not as severe as some. While the roots of the downturn showed up in 2006, we did not see the full effect of the pressure on the market until the sub-prime crisis of 2007. In the last year we have seen home sales down about 13-35%(depending an area) for year to date. The monthly pending sale numbers for the five areas that I follow are actually better for the month of August. Prices remain steady with only Allen and McKinney showing a decrease in the average price versus a year ago. Plano, Richardson, and Frisco all show a slight increase. That being said, I would suggest that prices are simply flat. Note also that the months of inventory for each area is down for the month as compared to the year to date average. This is certainly a good sign. A big part of the reason for this is that there are fewer homes for sale in the marketplace. In all areas that i cover the decrease in homes for sale is a good bit steeper in August than for the year to date. This suggests that there is more price resistance from the seller side at this time than earlier in the year. Plano, for instance, shows only a 4.6 month supply of homes on the market in August. This is down from 4.9 the previous month and 5months supply year to date. On the demand side of the equation we have a Dallas job market that leads the nation in job growth. We have a strong local economy and we are in generally good economic condition. The Dallas area continues to shine as an affordable housing market. While I am not sure that we can declare that our housing market has turned and indeed headed upward. I do think we are seeing some signs that suggest a sustained recovery is not far off.
Posted on Monday, October 20, 2008 at 02:13PM by Bill Webb Post a Comment On September 10th I wrote about a possible turn in the housing statistics in Plano and other North Dallas Suburbs. Those numbers were confirmed by the September statistics as Plano, and Allen lead the way to a significant change in pending sales, active listings and the months supply of inventory. For instance, Plano has a pending sales to active listing ratio of over 23%. This is up from 18% in August. Allen was even more dramatic in going to 23% from 16%. This show a definite narrowing of the available supply to the existing demand. Richardson numbers also showed improvment. While McKinney and Frisco also improved, the numbers for those two areas are still lower than they showed be in order to proclaim an end to the housing slump. All of this may be tempered by the financial mess of the last two weeks. We will almost certainly see weaker numbers in October. As we work through the financial maze we should see stronger housing market in the months to come. Bear in mind that we can change directions in a minute depending on the direction our overall economy takes. I do believe that the relative strength of the Dallas economy is contributing to this housing turnaround. Dallas builders have also done a fairly good job of reducing inventories to manageable levels. As it stands now I think we will see a stronger housing market starting with November and carrying through to 2009. If you would like clarification of the numbers below or have secific questions about your area or neighborhood please email me or call. We would be happy to help you with information about your area.