Thursday, July 30, 2009
Jobless Claims Look Positive and Texas is Poised to Lead the Recovery
The report on new jobless claims looks somewhat positive. Nothing to jump up and down about but a step in the right direction. This is another sign of the recovering economy. Average claims for the last four weeks fell to 559,000. This is the lowest trailing four week average since January. Jobs lost in January of this year were over 740,000. This was the highest monthly figure since 1949. It is estimated that the July number will be below 350,000. This a significant improvement. We will still see high unemployment throughout the rest of the year. Many experts think we will see something over ten percent. I personally think we will see things start to flatten out and we will not reach the 10 percent number. My feeling is that we most likely over adjusted on job cuts in the winter and spring and we may see the need to maintain or even add some jobs back in the coming months. One firm estimates that Texas will be one of a handful of states that will emerge the quickest as far as job growth is concerned. The energy industry and the fact that we did not have a huge housing bubble were cited as the main reasons that Texas will recover lost jobs faster than other states.